What to Make of the Golden Globes and the Upcoming Academy Awards?

On Sunday, January 17, Academy Award watchers gathered around television sets to watch the Golden Globe Awards. The increasingly popular awards show is viewed as an early indicator of who will win what at the Academy Awards. Nominations for the latter will be announced on Tuesday, January 31, but for now Academy Award watchers are either nodding in agreement or scratching their heads at what transpired on the January 17 telecast.

Individuals who vote for the Golden Globe Awards are members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. These are typically individuals who write for newspapers and other major publications throughout the world. Those who have the privilege of voting for the Academy Awards are people who are members of the movie industry. In other words, actors vote for actors and writers vote for writers, etc.

The latter distinction is one of two major differences between the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards. Other differences are that the Golden Globes include awards for television and that that they categorize musical and comedies separately from dramas. In 1990 Ghost, a top-grossing film starring Demi Moore and Patrick Swayze, received an Oscar nomination for Best Picture, surprising many people, but in actuality the film had received several nominations for Best Comedy and Best Supporting Actress. In other words, viewers shouldn’t be shocked to see a film like Walk the Line emerge as an Oscar contender in the Best Picture race.

This year’s Golden Globe winners in the film categories are likely to be contenders for the Oscars. Some will win just as they did several weeks ago, and some who did not win will find themselves making the magical walk up the steps to accept the coveted Oscar in March. Below are some early Oscar predictions (and some rationale behind them) in some of the major categories.

Best Actor

Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)

Dissecting the Fields

Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)

Although he’s well-respected, Russell Crowe is the least likely to win in this category. Cinderella Man, a well-reviewed movie, had disappointing box office results and was released in the summer—a deadly combination in this category.

In his favor: He’s an A-list actor and previous winner who starred in yet another acclaimed Ron Howard film.

Against him: Remember the telephone and the bell hop?

Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)

Philip Seymour Hoffman knabbed the Golden Globe and is a leading contender in the tight Oscar race in the same category. He portrayed Truman Capote in Bennett Miller terrific film. In years past, the Academy has selected actors who delivered less “showy” performances.

In his favor: He has an impressive resume. He’s a previous nominee who has never won.

Against him: Even with the re-release of Capote, Brokeback Mountain still has more momentum and more money behind its campaign.

Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)

Joaquin Phoenix embodied Johnny Cash, and he’s a proven commodity in A-list dramas.

In his favor: Jamie Fox won for Ray, and Phoenix pulled double duty with his singing and guitar-playing. He has never won.

Against him: His Walk the Line was good but not great. Momentum for the film has slowed just a bit.

Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)

In four and a half hours, moviegoers could see Heath Ledger portray an unsettled gay cowboy in Brokeback Mountain and the legendary Casanova in Lasse Hallstrom’s breezy romantic comedy.

In his favor: The sentiment and momentum associated with this film is similar to what Million Dollar Baby experienced last year. It was released at approximately the same time last year. Its lead performer won the Oscar.

Against him: Awarding him may ignite the ire of Michael Medved and Bill O’Reilly, something Hollywood doesn’t need

David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)

In his favor: He’s a veteran actor in a well-conceived and well-reviewed film. George Clooney is in his corner.

Against him: To a large degree, Good Night, and Good Luck has come and gone. It received stellar reviews back in October and November, but who’s talking about it now?

Outside Chance:

Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale)

In his favor: He's been around for years, and it's been years since his work has generated this kind of buzz.

Against him: The limited release of his film may hurt his chances in year in which the field is exceptionally crowded.

And the Oscar goes to…

Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain) - by a hair

Best Actress

Charlize Theron (North Country)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)
Lara Linney (The Squid and the Whale)

Charlize Theron (North Country)

Proving her virtuoso performance in Monster was no fluke, the Hollywood beauty dirtied herself up for a convincing portrayal as a sexually harassed miner in director Niki Caro’s American film debut.

In her favor: This performance solidified her reputation as an A-list actress.

Against her: Her North Country has come and gone. Norma Rae is still the benchmark for this type of film. She has already won and will likely get other opportunities.

Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)

Reese Witherspoon proved that there is more to her than the-less-than-traditional law student and lawyer in the Legally Blonde movies.

In her favor: She’s instantly likeable. Largely known as a comedic actress, Reese Witherspoon may never have a better chance to win in this category. This may mean a speech similar to Julia Roberts’ memorable one several years ago. She’s a comedic actress who delivers a good performance in a good drama.

Against her: Reese Witherspoon is not yet seen as a dramatic actress. Three of the other actresses in the category are much more established in this genre.

Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)

In her favor: She’s Felicity Huffman, the new “It” girl in Hollywood. She’s a “desperate housewife.”

Against her: She won an Emmy for her television work. She may be overexposed.

Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)

Keira Knightley was radiant in Pride and Prejudice, a terrific adaptation of the Jane Austen novel.

In her favor: She’s a beautiful, relatively new star with a bright future.

Against her: She’s a little too new to win Best Picture, and voters may feel she’ll have plenty of opportunities to win in future years.

Lara Linney (The Squid and the Whale)

In her favor: She's a proven dramatic actress with plenty of range. She picks her projects very carefully. She received critical acclaim for her performance in You Can Count on Me, which did wonders for both her and Mark Ruffalo.

Against her: The film's late and rather limited release may not enable it to be seen by enough voters. She's been overlooked in years when the competition has been less stiff. Who's to say she won't be overlooked yet again?

Outside chance:

Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)

In her favor: Critics and Academy voters take every opportunity to recognize her. She won for just ten minutes of screen time in Shakespeare in Love.

Against her: Her Mrs. Henderson Presents received mixed reviews. It has still not played in many major cities, indicating that its release is not as advantageous as it could have been for an Oscar contender.

Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger)

In her favor: Critics admire her and her performance in The Upside of Anger. She’s been nominated several times and has never won.

Against her: The Upside of Anger, opened to positive reviews, but scored poorly at the box office. She’s something of a long shot in this category. Her film was released in early spring of last year.

And the Oscar goes to...

This is awfully tough to call, but Felicity Huffman will be standing at the podium when the dust settles.

Best Picture

Five films will receive Oscar nominations for Best Picture. There are, however, approximately eight films that a chance of being nominated.

Capote

Bennett Miller’s revelatory film on the story behind Truman Capote’s In Cold Blood won critics and moviegoers over.

In its favor: Its star Philip Seymour Hoffman was brilliant and walked away with the Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a very crowded field.

Against it: Despite being re-released and Seymour Hoffman’s win, no one would say that they aren’t looking over their shoulders at Brokeback Mountain and its revered cast and crew.

Brokeback Mountain

Ang Lee’s well-conceived and moving story about two male sheepherders who fall for each other on Brokeback Mountain has momentum and then some. Even cultural conservative commentator and movie critic Michael Medved couldn’t completely deny the film’s power.

In its favor: Ang Lee, its director, is established and well-liked in Hollywood circles and deservedly so. The film singlehandedly revitalized the career of Heath Ledger, a once-fallen star. It has two likeable male leads, who should have the potential to nab great parts for years to come.

Against it: Its controversial subject matter has ignited some response from conservatives across the country. Word of mouth from Middle America is that the film is still a bit “artsy.” How is this film playing to all those folks in the red states?

Walk the Line

In its favor: The film was a hit with audiences and was reasonably well-reviewed by critics. Its two lead stars Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon are likeable and bankable.

Against it: Its director James Mangold is surely competent, but the film’s competition in every category is spectacular.

Good Night, and Good Luck

George Clooney has emerged as a power player in Hollywood. His Good Night, and Good Luck was bold and audacious and features the best videotape editing since Oliver Stone’s JFK.

In its favor: Megastar George Clooney produced, wrote, directed, and appeared in the film. Hollywood loves the film and loves Clooney’s courage and vision for making it.

Against it: Hollywood may fear a backlash against the politically-charged film.

Munich

Steven Spielberg’s controversial film raised the ire of everyone from The New York Times conservative columnist David Brooks to Israeli government officials.

In its favor: It is one of the most solemn pieces of work from America’s most popular and commercially-successful director.

Against it: The politically-shaky ground on which the film stands may be enough to scare the Academy. Recently, there have been charges that the film may have lifted information from a video that it did not properly credit.

Match Point

Woody Allen’s supposed return to form has not opened nationwide yet.

In its favor: Hollywood likes comeback stories, and if this film is half as good as it is touted to be, this could be the critical comeback of all comebacks.

Against it: It’s ultra-slow release may limit the number of individuals who actually see the film.

Crash

Crash was the directorial debut of Paul Haggis, who wrote the screenplay for last year’s Million Dollar Baby.

In its favor: Crash was a small film that ultimately performed very well at the box office. It’s an ensemble drama that featured some of the best performances in 2006. Its themes of racism and multiculturalism may appeal to the liberal-minded Academy voters.

Against It: Reviews were mixed. A.O. Scott of The New York Times was vocal in his disapproval of the film. It was released as a late spring and early summer film.

Constant Gardener

Constant Gardener was a well-written and well-directed film with passionate performances by Ralph Fiennes and Rachel Weisz.

In its favor: Its director did great work on City of God and his work here is an impressive followup.

Against it: It’s anti-pharmaceutical industry-message may be too risky for the Academy.

The New World

The New World is Terence Malick’s majestic and meditative account of the establishment of Jamestown, Virginia, and John Smith’s relationship with Pocohontas.

In its favor: It was directed by Terence Malick, a Harvard-educated director whose films are so good they are studied in film schools throughout the country. He's revered and exceedingly well-regarded.

Against It: The film is one of the least commercial films made. It may be suffering from too-late a release date. Academy voters may not have an opportunity to see the movie before they vote.

And the Oscar goes to...

Brokeback Mountain (The film is on a fast train to winning several major awards in major categories, despite its controversial subject matter.)

Slam Dunk Oscar Picks

Ang Lee, who won a Golden Globe for Best Director, will win an Academy Award in the same category.

George Clooney, whose film Good Night, and Good Luck won't win the Academy Award for Best Picture, will win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.

If Jake Gyllenhaal doesn't win in this category, then Philip Seymour Hoffman will win for Capote and not Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain.